CLOVERDALE, CA - March 6, 2002 - InfoTech Trends forecasts worldwide sales of PDAs will grow at an annual rate of 33.6% and reach 35 million units by 2005, up from 11 million in 2001. In the past five years the personal digital assistant has improved—in style, function, and usefulness—as much as the PC did over its first fifteen years. Five years ago the gray-on-gray screen required reading in baby-bear lighting—not too bright and not too dark—and a Sherlock Holmes magnifying glass. The early PDAs were designed to store and retrieve addresses and phone numbers and not much more. 

In the past five years PDAs have come a long way. Competition in the marketplace has helped. Today's manufacturers offer multiple models—the Honda motorcycle philosophy of offering a model for everyone and their budget—with different levels of functionality to choose from. The synergy between increasing functionality and the expanding base of potential users has brought about three important changes: 1) PDAs became smaller, but with larger screens. 2) The number of applications increased as did the universe of potential users. 3) PDAs now connect to the Internet and enterprise, extending their information base and computing capabilities.  

The following factors will continue to fuel growth over the next five years:           

·          Features: Applications like word processing, spreadsheets and money management will become increasingly easy to use with more PC-like features. Customized applications—from third party vendors and in-house programmers—will make PDAs more common among technical workers out in the field, across the spectrum of manufacturing and service companies.

·          Integration: By 2005 most PDAs will have wireless access to the Internet for e-mailing and browsing. PDAs will tie into the Internet and enterprise, and become extensions of larger computing and information environments. Uploading, downloading and communicating over the Internet will establish the PDA as the computing tool of choice for anywhere-anytime, small-task computing and information access.

·          Benefits: The big benefit will be the ability to get more done in more places from a handheld device. PDAs will supplement some tasks of notebook computers: PDAs will likely become the most frequently used device for sending and receiving e-mail; PDAs will increasingly be used for online purchases, accessing financial markets, checking the weather, staying in touch with colleagues, scheduling....

·          Convergence: PDAs will likely converge with cell phones, and in some way, eliminate the need for multiple devices.

·          Gadget envy: Games, music, video, and other multimedia applications will become just as common as downloading e-books in the student market.

·          Upgrade: 50% of corporate PDA users upgrade to a new model within 3 years. For the small price of a PDA, increased worker productivity justifies corporate upgrades.

·          Developing markets: Sales to Asian and developing markets continue to offer new growth opportunities.            

While Palm OS has been the leading operating system to date, PDAs with Windows-based operating systems will increase significantly. By 2005 Palm and Windows will each have a 50% share. Windows-based growth will result from the corporate market needing compatibility with business applications such as word processors and spreadsheets on Windows-based PCs. 

The information in this In-Depth Analysis is based on a review of the InfoTech Trends database of market research statistics, as well as additional sources. For more market data on the information technology industry, go to Free Data.